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Teva management just kicked off round two of a webinar series designed to highlight a broad range of future portfolio opportunities as part of its ongoing campaign to assuage market concerns the company faces a huge EPS hole and potentially years of sub-par growth if or when Copaxone faces initial generic competition. Clearly no game-changers in the portfolio and we believe there is a lot more risk to targeted sales than likely embedded in the company’s risk-adjusted forecast. Additionally, 2020 is a long way off and given that expected sales from the entire portfolio of assets ($3.0B) would only likely replace lost Copaxone sales in the event of generic entry over the next several years, NTE revelations will do little to alter current risk overhang.
Teva revealed four compounds in development in the abuse deterrent opioid market, three tablets and one patch product. We have been admittedly pretty skeptical on the abuse deterrent market as a whole. While FDA has mandated long-acting oxycodone products contain abuse-deterrent technologies and the market as a whole will likely eventually gravitate toward mandatory deterrents on some level, a whole host of companies are targeting this space suggesting no shortage of competition.